From Ports to Prices: The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Volume/Issue: Volume 2026 Issue 026

Publication date: February 2026

ISBN: 9798229039284

$20.00

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Topics covered in this book

This title contains information about the following subjects. Click on a subject if you would like to see other titles with the same subjects.

Exports and Imports , Inflation , Economics- Macroeconomics , Public Finance , Supply Chain Disruption , Port Congestion , Inflation , Price Dynamics , Inflation , Imports , Consumer prices , Supply shocks , COVID-19 , Valuation , origin and classification

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Summary

This paper examines the inflationary effects of shipping delays. We construct a novel measure of port-to-port shipping time using real-time AIS maritime data and link it with granular port-level trade and item-level price data. We document substantial heterogeneity in goods imports across ports and regions, variation in exposure to delays, and aggregate price responses to congestion shocks. Exploiting cross-product variations in exposure, we estimate both the average and dynamic effects of shipping delays on consumer prices, finding that a 100-hour delay raises inflation by roughly 0.5 percentage points at its five-month peak.