From Ports to Prices: The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Author: Yang Jiao, Ting Lan, Yang Liu, and Xinrui Zhao

Volume/Issue: Volume 2026 Issue 026

Publication date: February 2026

ISBN: 9798229039284

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Topics covered in this book

This title contains information about the following subjects. Click on a subject if you would like to see other titles with the same subjects.

Exports and Imports , Inflation , Economics- Macroeconomics , Public Finance , Supply Chain Disruption , Port Congestion , Inflation , Price Dynamics , shipping delay , IMF working papers , port-to-port shipping time , responses to congestion shock , shipping time , Supply shocks , Imports , Consumer prices , Valuation , origin and classification , Global

Also of interest

WORKING PAPERS PUBLISHED IN JUNE 2005

WORKING PAPERS PUBLISHED IN MARCH 2004

WORKING PAPERS PUBLISHED IN FEBRUARY 2007

WORKING PAPERS PUBLISHED IN AUGUST 2004

Summary

This paper examines the inflationary effects of shipping delays. We construct a novel measure of port-to-port shipping time using real-time AIS maritime data and link it with granular port-level trade and item-level price data. We document substantial heterogeneity in goods imports across ports and regions, variation in exposure to delays, and aggregate price responses to congestion shocks. Exploiting cross-product variations in exposure, we estimate both the average and dynamic effects of shipping delays on consumer prices, finding that a 100-hour delay raises inflation by roughly 0.5 percentage points at its five-month peak.