Global Economic and Financial Implications of Artificial Intelligence: Lessons from a Scenario Planning Exercise

This note synthesizes insights from a high-level workshop and scenario-planning exercise on the global economic and financial implications of artificial intelligence (AI) hosted by the IMF in December 2025. AI is advancing rapidly and has the potential to restructure the global economy, which calls for treating AI as a macro-critical transition rather than a standard technology shock. However, the macroeconomic path will be shaped less by frontier capability alone than by the speed and breadth of diffusion and the readiness of institutions and infrastructure to absorb the technology. Understanding AI’s potential and implications is crucial for the Fund’s ability to support its member countries with high-quality policy advice.