The energy price shock from the war in the Middle East is a considerable headwind, but strong investment and ongoing reforms in the context of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) are supporting growth. Public sector balance sheets continue to improve, with the public debt-to-GDP ratio declining rapidly, creating some policy space to meet external challenges. However, private sector balance sheet repair is incomplete and structural impediments—low overall investment, sluggish productivity growth, and unfavorable demographics—weigh on medium-term growth and external balances.