Guinea-Bissau: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Eighth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Rephasing of Access, Extension of the Arrangement, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and

This paper presents Guinea-Bissau’s 2025 Article IV Consultation, Eighth Review under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Rephasing of Access, Extension of the Arrangement, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Since the last Article IV of June 2022, economic growth has been resilient and the authorities have made significant progress in infrastructure development. The economic outlook for 2025 is positive supported by high international prices of cashew nuts and strong public and private investments. Program performance was mixed. Seven out of nine Quantitative Performance Criteria and three out of four Structural Benchmarks for end-December 2024 were met. The continuous Structural Benchmark on debt service payments was met while the continuous Structural Benchmark on the expenditure committee was missed. Growth is expected to reach 5.1 percent in 2025 while inflation should average 2 percent. The economic outlook is positive but remains subject to significant domestic and external risks.