Guinea-Bissau: Ninth and Tenth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for Rephasing of Access, Extension of the Arrangement, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea-Bissau

The social situation is relatively calm following the military takeover of the government in November 2025. The transitional government renewed its commitments to the ECF-supported program and has been accelerating the implementation of policies and reforms for maintaining economic stability and debt sustainability. A strong increase in cashew production and higher international prices for cashews supported economic growth and improved the balance of payments in 2025. Inflation fell to below 1 percent for the year, reflecting lower food prices. The economic outlook continues to be positive for 2026, although downside risks could arise from negative terms of trade shocks, adverse weather conditions, and additional tightening of regional financing conditions.