QPM-Based Analysis of Weather Shocks and Monetary Policy in Developing Countries

Weather-related shocks are of a supply-side nature and therefore present significant challenges for monetary policy. Using a Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) framework, this paper provides an overview of weather-relevant analytical exercises that help to understand the propagation channels of these shocks, the policy trade-offs they imply, and the ensuing implications for the conduct of monetary policy. The exercises highlight the important role of economic characteristics and frictions, such as the weight of food expenditures in the consumption basket, the GDP share of the agriculture sector, the degree of imports substituting for the damaged domestic agricultural supply, the extent of inflation expectations’ anchoring and central bank credibility, and the specific characteristics of the monetary policy framework, including the degree of exchange rate flexibility and the definition of the price stability objective. Overall, the extent of these characteristics and frictions in developing countries render them more vulnerable and constitute bigger challenges in monetary policy conduct relative to developed economies.