Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2025

Resilience amid Uncertainty: Will it Last?

Economic growth in the Middle East and Central Asia was resilient in 2025 despite global uncertainty. But maintaining momentum will require cautious macroeconomic policies, and long-term reforms.

Publication date: October 2025

ISBN: 9798229023016

$20.00

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Topics covered in this book

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Exports and Imports , Finance , Inflation , Economics- Macroeconomics , Urban and Regional , Middle East economic forecast , Central Asia growth outlook , MENA GDP projection 2025 , regional economic outlook report , structural reforms Middle East , macro risks Central Asia , IMF REO Middle East , CCA economy , IMF staff calculation , oil exporter , MENAP region , CCA region , Oil exports , Inflation , Emerging and frontier financial markets , Exchange rate arrangements , Central Asia and the Caucasus , North Africa , Middle East , Global , East Africa

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Summary

Economic performance in the Middle East and Central Asia has shown resilience so far in 2025, despite still-elevated global uncertainty and continued regional geopolitical tensions. Growth in Middle East and North Africa is projected to strengthen gradually, supported by oil output, strong demand, and reforms, while growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia is expected to slow to a more sustainable pace. But risks loom: weaker global demand, tighter financial conditions, renewed geopolitical instability, and climate shocks could all weigh on the outlook. This makes fiscal prudence, structural reforms, and stronger policy frameworks essential to sustaining durable growth. The REO also explores post-conflict economic recovery, showing that lasting peace requires swift macroeconomic stability, adequate financing, and stronger institutions to rebuild state capacity.