Republic of Kazakhstan: State-Owned Enterprises, the Fiscal Stance, and Risks

State-owned enterprises (SOEs) remain a cornerstone of Kazakhstan’s economy and growth model. However, SOEs’ quasi-fiscal activities conducted outside the fiscal framework obscure the overall fiscal stance, complicating macroeconomic management. This paper finds that the balance sheet expansion by major SOEs averaged about 20 percent of the state budget expenditure over the past five years. If this activity were booked as budgetary expenditure, the non-oil deficit would have been about 3.5 percentage points higher in 2024–25, indicating a larger fiscal expansion than recorded in official budget figures. Moreover, underperformance of several SOEs could create significant contingent fiscal risks. Policymakers should better align SOE investment with fiscal objectives, strengthen monitoring, and assess risks to public finances.