Solving the Canonical Quarterly Projection Model Using EViews

This technical note provides step-by-step instructions for solving the Canonical Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) using EViews®.
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Volume/Issue: Volume 2026 Issue 003
Publication date: April 2026
ISBN: 9798229035439
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Topics covered in this book

This title contains information about the following subjects. Click on a subject if you would like to see other titles with the same subjects.

Banks and Banking , Inflation , Economics- Macroeconomics , forecasting , monetary policy analysis , quarterly projection model , time series analysis , real exchange rates , Inflation , Exchange rates , Output gap , Nominal effective exchange rate , Real interest rates

Summary

The Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) is one of the IMF’s standard frameworks for monetary policy analysis and forms a core component of a forward‑looking Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS). Traditionally, the QPM is solved using simulation tools available in MATLAB. This technical note demonstrates how the canonical QPM can instead be implemented using the EViews econometric package, with the aim of reducing the technical barriers to applying the model in practice. The note is intended for policy analysts and economists who wish to adapt the QPM to country‑specific settings without requiring advanced proficiency in the EViews programming language. The approach is illustrated using a notional “Country Z,” but the methodology can be readily adapted to real‑world country applications. Users need only to assemble the required data and make targeted modifications to existing EViews code, such as selecting the appropriate exchange‑rate regime equations and calibrating key model constants. In addition to solving the QPM for its baseline projection, the technical note shows how to construct and analyze alternative scenarios. These scenarios may involve multiple exogenous shocks and constraints on selected endogenous variables, enabling users to assess the dynamic response of the economy and the speed and path of its return to the baseline.